欧盟能源安全论文提纲

论文题目：美国、中国及欧盟的能源供给安全政策的比较分析

摘要：美国、中国和欧盟是目前世界最大的能源进口主体,因此,供给安全在能源政策议程上扮演着相当关键的角色。然而,纵观这三个主体会发现,他们的能源供给安全政策又各自不同。本论文主要研究并探讨的是美国、中国、欧洲在能源供给安全政策上的异同,并在短期与长期的视野上对地缘政治和市场拓展的效果进行分析。本研究主要关注的是作为第一资源的石油与天然气,因其在能源进口中占有着相当大的比例。一个国家的能源供给安全政策由对内对外的影响能源供给安全的双重因素形成的,以及由该国家在保障能源供给安全时所做的行为形成的。换言之,以保障能源供给安全的角度来看待的话,主要依靠的是该国的能源产业情况以及该国如何看待国际能源体系和其本身在这个体系之中的位置。为完成此研究目标,首先,影响这三个主体的能源供给安全的内外因素需要进行仔细分析;其次,以自由主义和现实主义理论出发,采用以市场为导向的方法和战略性的方法,给仍在研究的概念框架阐述了国家的政策选择。最后,对比分析了这三个主体的短期及长期的能源供给安全政策所产生的效果。本文的分析基于美国、中国和欧盟的法律法规和官方讨论。研究结果表明了在短期与长期的能源供给安全政策方面,能源市场发展、地缘政治和国内能源产业具有怎样的含义。在石油价格走低的大环境下、在当下的地缘政治条件下,短期的欧盟的能源供给相较于美国和中国,具有比较高的不安全性。目前欧盟整经历着来自内部和外部的多个困难,而欧盟所采取的一市场为导向的方法并不太适用于欧盟的外部能源伙伴,限制了其保障石油和天然气供给的能力。然而,从长远角度来看,如果计划中的能源安全政策能够完全按照计划进行实施,那么欧盟将会成为全球能源市场中最具有影响力和安全性的一方。对于中国来说,以市场为导向的方法结合战略性方法的做法,在当下的地缘政治和市场条件下是表现得最为出色的。然而,从长远角度来看,影响中国能源安全实效的主要因素还依赖于中国如何调整能源模式与改变地缘政治秩序。美国的战略性优势让美国能够有效地减少石油进口并转变为天然气的出口国。然而,美国的能源安全政策缺少长远的目光,因为目前的能源市场条件让美国不得不提高石油的进口,而美国与中东石油供应国之间的关系又变得复杂而不稳定。因此,美国未来的能源供给安全政策在很大程度上将依赖于其未来长期的国内及对外的能源政策的解决方案的发展,以确保持续及安全的能源供应。

关键词：能源政策;能源供给安全;美国;中国;欧盟

学科专业：The Science of Public Administration

Abstract

摘要

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations and acronyms

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Setting the context

1.1.1 Identifying security of energy supply

1.1.2 Security of energy supply in energy policy discourse

1.2 Preliminary study and rationale

1.2.1 Research question

1.2.2 Aims and objectives

1.3 Methodology

1.3.1 Sources

1.3.2 Research method

1.4 Literature review

1.5 Research limitations and future research

1.6 Research structure

2. THEORETICAL FOUNDATION BEHIND ENERGY POLICIES ONSECURITY OF SUPPLY

2.1 Components impacting energy policies on security of supply

2.1.1 Components impacting externally

2.1.1.1 Price and energy market

2.1.1.2 Geopolitics

2.1.2 Components impacting internally

2.1.2.1 Domestic demand

2.1.2.2 Domestic exploitation

2.1.2.3 Technological advance

2.2 Policy approaches to securing energy supply

2.2.1 Market-oriented approach

2.2.1.1 Liberal thought: securing economy and interdependence

2.2.2 Strategic approach

2.2.2.1 Realist thought: securing a state

2.3 SWOT analysis for examining energy policies on security of supply

2.4 Concluding points

3. LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK OF ENERGYPOLICIES ON SECURITY OF SUPPLY IN U.S., CHINA AND THE EU

3.1 Legislative and regulatory framework of energy policies on security of supply in the U.S.

3.1.1 Governance structure, policies and regulations in energy sector

3.1.2 Energy policy landmarks on security of supply

3.1.3 Concept of security of energy supply in the legal documentation

3.2 Legislative and regulatory framework of energy policies on security ofsupply in China

3.2.1 Governance structure, policies and regulations in energy sector

3.2.2 Energy policy landmarks on security of supply

3.2.3 Concept of security of energy supply in the official discourse

3.3 Legislative and regulatory framework of energy policies on security ofsupply in the EU

3.3.1 Governance structure, policies and regulations in energy sector

3.3.2 Energy policy landmarks on security of supply

3.3.3 Security of energy supply as defined by the European Commission

3.4 Defining the differences in legislative and regulatory framework ofenergy policies on security of supply in the U.S., China and the EU

3.5 Concluding points

4. POLICY VARIATIONS ON SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE U.S., CHINA AND THE EU

4.1 Defining the sources of variations of energy policies on security ofsupply in the U.S., China and the EU

4.1.1 Oil and gas production, consumption and import dependence

4.1.2 The role of a government in ensuring security of energy supply

4.1.3 Energy policies on security of supply in a dynamic priceenvironment

4.2 Market-oriented dimension in energy policies on security of supply inthe U.S., China and the EU

4.2.1 Security of energy supply as a central to economic growth inthe U.S. and China

4.2.2 Liberalization as a path to securing energy supply in the EU

4.2.3 The EU in relations with external energy suppliers

4.3 Strategic dimension in energy policies on security of supply in the U.S., China and the EU

4.3.1 Diversification of supply routes as a priority in China and the EU

4.3.2 Energy self-sufficiency and the importance of domestic supplyfor the U.S. and China

4.3.3 U.S. and China in relations with external energy suppliers

4.4 Concluding points

5. COMPARING ENERGY POLICY AGENDAS ON SECURITY OF SUPPLYIN THE U.S., CHINA AND THE EU

5.1 Applying SWOT analysis to energy policy agendas on security of supply in the U.S.

5.1.1 Interpretation of results

5.2 Applying SWOT analysis to energy policy agendas on security of supply in China

5.2.1 Interpretation of results

5.3 Applying SWOT analysis to energy policy agendas on security of supplyin the EU

5.3.1 Interpretation of results

5.4 Comparing effectiveness of existing energy policies on security ofsupply in the U.S., China and the EU in the short-term perspective

5.5 Concluding points

6. ANALYZING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ENERGY POLICIES ON SECURITY OF SUPPLY IN THE U.S., CHINA AND THE EU IN THELONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE

6.1 Identifying future developments and implications for energy policies onsecurity of supply in the U.S., China and the EU in the long term

6.2 Evolving role of energy market and implications for energy policies onsecurity of supply in the U.S., China and the EU

6.2.1 The effects of oil prices in the long term

6.2.2 Development of global natural gas market

6.3 Evolving role of geopolitics and implications for energy policies onsecurity of supply in the U.S., China and the EU

6.3.1 Escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and Africa

6.3.2 Energy and geopolitical alliances

6.4 Shifts in domestic development of energy sector and implicationsfor energy policies on security of supply in U.S., China and the EU

6.4.1 Fuel substitution

6.4.2 Technology development and the future of security of supply

6.4.3 Addressing oil consumption in transportation sector

6.5 Concluding points

7. CONCLUSIONS

8. APPENDIX

8.1 Appendix tables

8.2 Appendix figures

9. REFERENCES